Instability in Jordan: The impact on Trump’s “Ultimate Deal”

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Title : Instability in Jordan: The impact on Trump’s “Ultimate Deal”
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“Jordan sees largest anti-government protests in years” “Al Jazeera ”, June 4,2018.

“Jordanians take to the streets to protest austerity measures” CNN,June 4, 2018

“Jordan: thousands protest against IMF-backed austerity measures”, -“The Guardian , June 3, 2018

These are merely a small sample of the international media coverage of the widespread unrest and protests against new IMF mandated austerity measures, that rocked the kingdom of Jordan last month. They raised troubling questions as to the long term durability of the country’s incumbent monarchical regime and of the ruling Hashemite dynasty.

Jury still out?

In response to public anger at the austerity measures, King Abdallah, the third member of the Hashemite line to rule Jordan since its inception in 1946, replaced his prime minster and ordered a review of the IMF prescribed reforms.

The jury is still out on whether these steps will placate public anger—and if so for how long. For, with persistently high unemployment (now hovering just under 20%), a national debt reaching 95% , rising inflation (the highest in years), sluggish growth and increasing poverty, Jordan faces daunting domestic socio-economic challenges.

However, beyond its own internal woes, the kingdom has been plagued by severe external problems induced by the tribulations of others in the turbulent region in which it is located. Thus, the war in Syria--and earlier in Iraq-- led to a deluge of refugees into the hapless country—straining its social services to their very limits.

None of this augurs well for future stability—and even if reports that most of the public ire has been directed at the government rather than the king are true—there seems scant room for optimism as to what is to come.

Crucial strategic terrain

One of the possible repercussions of the challenge to the stability of the Hashemite regime, that has received meager attention in the public discourse, is the potential impact that political upheaval in Jordan may have on the feasibility of Donald Trump’s “ultimate deal” Mid-East peace plan which is rumored to be announced soon.

This is particularly pertinent with regard to the practicality and prudence of any territorial concessions this plan may call on Israel to make. After all, the identity of a prospective successor to the current incumbent regime in Amman is of tremendous consequence to Israel.