Netanyahu may resort to a minority government if he lacks a majority in the final results

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Title : Netanyahu may resort to a minority government if he lacks a majority in the final results
Link : Netanyahu may resort to a minority government if he lacks a majority in the final results

A day after Israel’s election, the numbers logged on March 24 contradicted media attempts to present Yair Lapid at the head the anti-Netanyahu grouping of factions in the lead position for forming a government coalition. According to DEBKAfile’s political analysts, the still partial count of 52 versus 56 does not take into account, key factors: (a) that the count is far from final; (b) that Netanyahu’s 56 seats represent a firm lineup of committed partners, his Likud and three religious parties, plus Yamina’s 9 for a 61-seat majority. Yamina’s leader Naftali Bennett has pledged not to join a Lapid government that includes far-right Meretz and the Joint Arab List; (c) that the opposition camp in contrast consists of a mix of widely divergent factions from right to far left – Lapid’s Yesh Atid, Lieberman’s Yisrael Beitenu, Labor, Kachol Lavan, New Hope and Meretz. He is also counting in the 7-member Joint Arab List.

Lapid must still face the daunting task of hammering these clashing groups together into a harmonious lineup behind him with an agreed political program. The prospect of a cohesive Lapid government, which seats Aviigdor Lieberman alongside Arab MK Ayman Odeh, or the right-wing Gideon Saar as a willing partner of the far-left Meretz,, looks more like a pipe dream than solid reality.

And still out there are the five seats gained by the Ra’am party after apparently making it past the threshold of 3.75pc. Its leader Abbas Mansour says he is open to negotiations with any party leader depending on their response to the needs of the Arab community.

None of the figures recorded so far are final. The central elections committee has not given a date to complete the count of all polling stations, as well as the 450,000 “double envelopes,” and the military vote (a relatively high 70pc turnout), Some five Knesset seats are therefore still up in the air.

The final count of ballots may provide one of the opposing camps in this tight race enough strength to block its rival’s attempts to lead a new government. DEBKAfile predicts that at the end of the road, Netanyahu will strive to form a government with the resources to hand. If he finds he is short of a majority, he is likely to try for a minority government with the paramount aim of avoiding a ludicrous fifth election. READ MORE