How bad is Iran's 60% enrichment threat? - analysis

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Title : How bad is Iran's 60% enrichment threat? - analysis
Link : How bad is Iran's 60% enrichment threat? - analysis

Iran's announcement that it would enrich uranium up to the 60% level made waves globally at a level of magnitude far above any of its prior threats.

The question is whether the Islamic Republic has the capacity to actually carry out the threat as well as a threat to install an additional 1,000 first generation centrifuges for enriching uranium on top of the 5,060 it has been operating.

On Thursday, the IAEA said that Tehran was already deep into preparations to make its threats a reality.

If Iran can pull off its threat, the challenge would be very serious because the 60% level would bring it much closer to breaching the threshold for a nuclear bomb.

In order for uranium to be weaponized, it must be enriched to 90%.

Under the 2015 nuclear deal, Iran had to stay below 5% nuclear enrichment.

However, both before the nuclear deal and since the Islamic Republic started violating the deal in 2019-2020, it has enriched some of its uranium stock to a mid-level 20%.

Even the jump to 20% set off alarms globally as taking a major additional step toward a nuclear weapon - especially since there is no viable civilian use for 20% enriched uranium.

But to date, Iran has not enriched uranium up to 60%, often referred to as the next level for jumping toward a nuclear weapon.

Former IDF intelligence chief Aharon Ze’evi Farkash told The Jerusalem Post that “I would treat the announcement at this point as a signal of intent to improve its [Iran’s] negotiating hand on the eve of returning to negotiations this week in Vienna with the EU-3.”

In other words, he was far from convinced that Iran would carry out the threat or would do it on a scale that would significantly shorten its clock to developing a nuclear weapon.

Rather, the threat or any 60% enrichment could be minimal and symbolic so as not to risk getting so close to the nuclear threshold that Israel might feel the need to launch a major preemptive strike. READ MORE