How Israel can reclaim the agenda and defeat Hamas

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Title : How Israel can reclaim the agenda and defeat Hamas
Link : How Israel can reclaim the agenda and defeat Hamas

(JNS) Every intelligence officer in the United States at one point in his formal training learns about the great Israeli intelligence failure in the 1973 war. The lesson is clear, and is the same one identified by Roberta Wohlstetter regarding the great failure in Pearl Harbor in 1941: a set of ideas, or “conception,” can so thoroughly dominate elites and the professional strategic and intelligence communities that it overpowers growing evidence and information suggesting an approaching tectonic shift.

Israel has just been shaken, because it suffered in recent days a second great—indeed, catastrophic—“failure of conception,” with dramatic human and strategic consequences. And it will face a grave national challenge going forward, beyond the horrific missile barrages from Gaza, because its entire understanding of its situation and the defense concepts that flow from it have collapsed.

And yet, Israel also faces a great opportunity. A proper response could deliver Israel a tremendous victory, perhaps one of its greatest, and leave it much strengthened and more valued in the long run as an ally for others struggling to survive in a dangerous region.

The dream palace of illusions

With respect to Iran’s nuclear program and attempts to establish its power in Syria, Israel has embraced the strategy of preemption, which served it so well in its early years, to deny an avowed genocidal enemy the means to execute its ambition. And yet, with regard to its other enemies, Israel in recent decades has shifted from preemption to deterrence, and a “quiet for quiet” formula.

It turned to relying on American support rather than enjoying the freedom of action to shape its environment into a less dangerous form. It watched massive stockpiling of missiles in Gaza and in Lebanon but believed its overwhelming force, and the willingness to use it, guaranteed deterrence. Israel believed it could absorb constant attacks on border communities as a below-the-threshold simmering that can be tolerated, much to the chagrin of the people living in those communities. And Israel believed it could pay blood money to a desperate Hamas via the Qataris to keep them quiet. READ MORE