Six takeaways from Iran nuke negotiations - analysis

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Title : Six takeaways from Iran nuke negotiations - analysis
Link : Six takeaways from Iran nuke negotiations - analysis

Some major events have happened in the last week of the nuclear standoff between Iran, the US and the world powers, which give some additional insights into what to expect next.

Following a background briefing to the media by a senior US State Department official, here are six takeaways:

1. Follow-on negotiations: A major reason there has been no deal so far is that the Biden administration has held tough to there being a follow on round of negotiations to address issues which the JCPOA nuclear deal did not address.

These include: ballistic missiles, the Islamic Republic's destabilization of the Middle East and potentially extending nuclear limits beyond 2030. Israel opposes a return to the JCPOA, partially because it believes a US attempt to get new concessions after lifting sanctions is foolhardy. Jerusalem might be slightly heartened to hear that Washington may be taking this issue seriously even if it will not fully meet Israeli concerns. The US also seems to be taking Tehran's advanced centrifuge and higher enrichment levels seriously.

2. Iran saving face during the follow-on negotiations: It has now been formally suggested that one way the US might bridge differences with Iran on new concessions is that aspects of the follow-on deal after the JCPOA deal (if any of this happens) might be informal and not signed in an agreement. This will greatly concern Jerusalem, whose experience is that Iran ignores anything it has not signed on to formally and with teeth - and even those commitments are often not honored completely.

If the US goes this route, Israeli intelligence monitoring to see if the Islamic Republic is, say, continuing ballistic missiles development at ranges threatening Israel but not the US, will be as crucial as ever.

3. Sanctions to Raisi will likely come off: The senior US official explicitly did not say whether Washington will remove sanctions from Ebrahim Raisi for human rights violations, now that he is Iran's president-elect. But in this case a non-commitment is likely a commitment to lift sanctions. It would make negotiations with Tehran extraordinarily difficult if the Biden administration did not raise sanctions on Raisi.

This is probably what Israel is pushing for to block a return to the JCPOA. But Biden is committed to the return, which means he will likely lift sanctions on Raisi as part of a package deal. If the Us was going to do otherwise, they would be sending a clear signal of no sanctions lifting from the get-go. READ MORE