The Real Hormuz Crisis Is Only Beginning

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Title : The Real Hormuz Crisis Is Only Beginning
Link : The Real Hormuz Crisis Is Only Beginning

The world needs one barrel of this fuel for every three people on Earth, every single day. It can’t be replaced with any other fuel. And virtually every industrial and agricultural process depends on it. I’m not talking about oil. Or gasoline. I’m talking about the fuel that powers every economy on Earth: diesel. Every day, the world consumes roughly 29 million barrels of diesel and similar gasoil fuels. Global oil demand of all kinds is about 105 million barrels per day. So diesel alone is only about a quarter of that. But it’s the most important fraction. And it’s impossible to replace.

Diesel is no ordinary commodity. It is distilled from crude oil in a precise alchemy that begins when raw barrels – pumped from the deserts of Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and the UAE – are heated in towering refinery columns. Lighter fractions rise first (gasoline and naphtha), followed by the middle distillates boiling between 315°F and 450°F that yield diesel.

Hydrotreating these middle distillates scrubs out sulfur to meet ultra-low-sulfur diesel standards. The result: a dense, high-energy fuel that powers 99% of the heavy trucks, locomotives, ships’ auxiliary engines, farm tractors, mining haulers, and emergency generators that underpin modern civilization. Virtually every long-haul truck on every continent runs on diesel. Without it, global supply chains seize. One barrel of crude typically yields about 23% diesel after refining – far more than gasoline in many complex facilities – making it the workhorse of freight, agriculture, and construction. In large-population economies, the stakes are existential:

* Indonesia’s 270 million people rely on diesel for inter-island ferries and the trucks that move rice, palm oil, and manufactured goods

* Europe’s 450 million people depend on it for cross-border trucking that delivers everything from German auto parts to French produce

* China’s 1.4 billion keep factories and ports alive with diesel-powered logistics

If the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, the world’s economy will collapse, and the reason it will collapse is diesel. In a typical year, New York Harbor ultra‑low‑sulfur diesel trades somewhere in the $2.25 to $3.25 per gallon range. When diesel pokes above $3.50, people in the business start using words like “tight.” On March 20, the price hit $4.71. If you own a trucking fleet, your single largest operating cost just went vertical. The only time prices have ever been higher was at the beginning of the Russian-Ukraine war. The price hit $5.33 on May 11, 2022. Europe has its own benchmark called ICE Low Sulphur Gasoil. In calm times it trades between $600 and $900 per metric ton. But when Russia rolled into Ukraine in February 2022, that contract raced up, peaking around $1,250. Today, it’s trading over those previous records around $1,400. (Ed note: A somewhat long, but very interesting article.) (Read More)