A strike on Israel by an emboldened Iran looms, but may not be imminent

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Title : A strike on Israel by an emboldened Iran looms, but may not be imminent
Link : A strike on Israel by an emboldened Iran looms, but may not be imminent

Iran is feeling emboldened, and this has the Israeli military, which regularly bombs Iranian assets in the region, concerned that Tehran will one day respond to these strikes with a cruise missile or drone attack.

In light of these concerns, the Israel Defense Forces appears to have scaled down its operations against Iranian and Iranian-allied forces in the region in recent weeks. (Israel acknowledges conducting strikes against Iranian targets in the region in general, but as a rule does not take responsibility for specific attacks.)

This hiatus appears to have been a bid to cool tensions following a one-day battle between Israel and the Iran-backed Hezbollah terror group on September 1 and an effort by the IDF to ensure that the sensitive period of the Jewish High Holidays — from September 30 to October 21 — passed without conflict.

Indeed there have been no reported airstrikes against pro-Iranian militias in Syria or Iraq since September 28.

The situation is tense and precarious and poised to deteriorate into a conflict

With the end of the Jewish festivals, the military may soon return to its campaign against Iranian entrenchment in the Middle East and with it the threat of Iranian attack.

Such a retaliatory strike by Iran does not appear to be imminent, but does appear to be firmly on the horizon, according to an Israeli Military Intelligence assessment, based on the ongoing operations of Iranian forces and Iranian proxies in Syria and elsewhere in the region, and a general understanding of the modus operandi of Iran and its powerful Quds Force, the branch of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps led by Qassem Soleimani that operates abroad.

An Iran with self-esteem

Since this summer, Iran has successfully attacked an American drone, international oil tankers and a major Saudi petroleum facility — and faced no serious consequences for these actions.

In addition, the United States has begun actively withdrawing from Syria — both in terms of troops and interest — and from the Middle East in general, a move that would also bolster Iran’s belief that it can act with impunity in the region as its primary enemy is effectively abandoning the main arena of the fight.

This heightened Iranian self-esteem and the threat that it poses to the Jewish state does not bode well for the Israel Defense Forces, which routinely carries out airstrikes against Iranian and Iranian-allied forces throughout the Levant. READ MORE