What does the Deraa surrender mean for Iran and Russia in Syria?

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Title : What does the Deraa surrender mean for Iran and Russia in Syria?
Link : What does the Deraa surrender mean for Iran and Russia in Syria?

In a new ceasefire agreement that may bring an end to a 75-day Assad-regime siege on the Syrian town of Deraa al-Balad, Syrian rebels have, with few alternatives, made far-reaching concessions to the Syrian government. The siege and the subsequent agreement bring an end to an anomalous situation that had pertained in Deraa al-Balad since the area’s reconquest by regime, Russian and Iranian forces in July 2018.

Since that time, Russia had underwritten a situation in which former rebels were able to hold light weapons and maintain security inside the town. The regime, meanwhile, did not attempt to establish checkpoints or impose its rule in Deraa al-Balad.

The regime offensive under way since June was intended to terminate this situation and reimpose direct rule, as part of President Bashar Assad’s effort to reconquer all parts of Syria currently outside of government control. In Deraa al-Balad, this objective now looks well on the way to being achieved. The siege has been brutal, in the usual Assad manner. Food and medical supplies have been kept out of the area, in which around 50,000 people are resident. Electricity supplies, patchy even before the siege, were cut off.

The shifting balance of power in this southwestern Syrian province matters to Israel, because Deraa province borders the Golan Heights. It is the location of an Iranian strategic project to establish and deploy forces under its control in the area, with the intention that these may be used in a future clash between Jerusalem and Tehran, or Iran’s local proxy, Hezbollah.

Iran controls the border crossing at Abu Kamal, further east, linking Syria to Iraq. The Iranians have freedom of movement across the south of the country. They have built a number of facilities close to the border crossing, including the large Imam Ali base.

From Israel’s point of view, the main obstacle to the consolidation and entrenchment of this Iranian project, other than Israel’s own military actions, has been the Russian presence in the area. The Russians do not support the Iranian project to build a capacity for aggression against Israel in southwestern Syria. Their own project of limited cooperation with former rebels appeared indeed to be pushing in the other direction.

The apparent Russian shift toward acquiescence to Iranian desires reflected in the Deraa agreement will thus not be welcomed in Jerusalem. Going together with increasing signs of Russian impatience with Israel’s air campaign against Iranian targets in Syria, it is an indication that any Israeli hopes that Russia might play a role in limiting Iran’s influence in Syria may have to be revised.

At present, around 30% of Syria remains outside regime control. The main areas outside Damascus’s remit in Syria are currently invulnerable to incursions because they are guaranteed by external powers. These are the Kurdish-dominated Autonomous Authority of North and East Syria (AANES) – whose continued existence is currently underwritten by the presence of US forces on its soil, and the Turkish-occupied area in Syria’s northwest. READ MORE