Some of Netanyahu’s most bitter adversaries have smoothed a path for his return

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Title : Some of Netanyahu’s most bitter adversaries have smoothed a path for his return
Link : Some of Netanyahu’s most bitter adversaries have smoothed a path for his return

There are still more than six weeks to go until election day, and the Likud opposition is wisely refraining from premature kvelling, but Thursday’s eleventh-hour split in the mainly Arab Joint List has boosted the prospects for a return to power after November 1 by Benjamin Netanyahu.

His right-religious bloc of loyalists — Likud, Religious Zionism, Shas and United Torah Judaism — had already been polling at around 59 seats (including in last week’s Times of Israel poll of polls), far ahead of the 52 seats it won in the March 2021 elections. Two snap TV surveys on Friday night raised the Netanyahu bloc to 60 seats, just one short of a Knesset majority.

Until the breakup, the three-party Joint List alliance was heading for 5-6 seats — a hardly stellar performance. But Balad, an avowedly anti-Zionist party in that Joint List alliance, is splitting off to run on its own — in intensely disputed circumstances. Its two former partners, Hadash and Ta’al, are now seen wobbling barely above the Knesset threshold at 4 seats, and Balad is predicted to come nowhere near to clearing the threshold.

Rather than helping lift the Joint List to 5 or 6 seats, as expected until Thursday, Balad, with its departure from the Joint List and solo run, has thus not only almost certainly doomed itself, but could wind up dooming one or both of the other Arab parties as well.

Underlining the likely boost to Netanyahu, recent history shows that the more divided the Arab community’s would-be Knesset representatives, the lower the turnout, and the worse the result. As recently as 2020, the Joint List, which then also included the Islamist party Ra’am, won a record 15 seats. Friday night’s polls show those same four parties, now divided into three bickering slates, heading for just 8. READ MORE